The G-1 Climax – the Preview!

Howdy!

Hey, you. Yeah, you!

Let’s talk about the G-1 Climax.

Starting on Saturday (but really starting up in full one week later in Japan), the G-1 Climax begins. And whether you watch it or not, hanging out on websites like these means that even if you’re not interested, you’re going to hear about it at some point.

My goal here is not to give you the “WOWZERS THE G-1 IS SO AWESOME!” take, nor am I here to give you the “all wrestling outside of WWE is just Meltzer catnip” take. I, like most rational people (and yes, I consider most of the folks on the BoD relatively rational), know that there’s obviously a middle ground to any extremes.

Instead, if you’re looking forward to the G-1, I’ll assume that you’re here for analysis, which I’ll hope to provide for you. And if you’ve never watched a single G-1 match, or a single New Japan match for that matter, I hope I can give you some background and context for what the G-1 actually is and why I personally think it’s one of the best times of the entire year to be a wrestling fan.

And if you’re not one of those two, I’ll assume you misclicked. Thanks for the hit!

At the end of the day, this is just a wrestling tournament – albeit the best one of the year most years, but still, just a wrestling tournament.

Here we go.

1. What exactly is the G-1 Climax?
So glad you asked! The G-1, or Grade One Climax, takes place once a year in New Japan Pro Wrestling (NJPW) and determines the #1 Contender for the IWGP Championship at Wrestle Kingdom in January. The IWGP championship is the top title in the company, and Wrestle Kingdom is their biggest event of the year. The winner of the G-1 receives a briefcase that contains the contract for the WK title shot inside, and that briefcase is defended like any other title up until that date.

2. Okay. How does the tournament work?
There are 20 wrestlers in the G-1, divided into 2 blocks, A Block and B Block, 10 each. The tournament is a round robin event within the blocks, so all the wrestlers in A Block will wrestle each other in singles matches and all the wrestlers in B Block will wrestle each other in singles matches. Points are scored as follows: 2 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. The winners of each Block face each other on the final night to determine the winner.

3. How does each night of the tournament work?
The tournament alternates its nights – on the first night, the wrestlers in A Block will wrestle each other in tournament singles matches, while the competitors from B Block wrestle tag team matches against each other in various combinations, normally previewing the singles matches on the next show. So, for example, the main event of the first night of the G-1 is the A Block’s Hiroshi Tanahashi vs Kazuchika Okada, while Tomohiro Ishii will team with Shota Umino against Jeff Cobb and Ren Narita, since Ishii will face Cobb in the first night of B Block action on the next show. This continues over the course of the next several weeks, until the round robin singles are complete and the Finals happens, which is Monday, August 12th.

4. Does this mean that I have to wake up to watch the show at 4 AM every day?
No! Thanks to NJPW World, every single show will be available to watch whenever you want! And, since last year, every single G-1 show will have English commentary with Kevin Kelly and Rocky Romero, so if you’re at all worried about not understanding the commentary, NJPW has you covered.

5. NJPW World?
Ah, yes. New Japan has their own streaming service, New Japan World, and it’s a tremendous deal – cheaper than the WWE network at 999 yen, it averages out to less than ten bucks a month. Check it out over at njpwworld.com and get signed up.

6. Wait, isn’t the first night happening in Texas?
Yes. The first night of the G-1 will happen on Saturday, July 6th at 6 PM EST. This will be the only show that will not be available on NJPW World live, instead airing on AXS TV live and getting put on World later. This year, with the first night being in the United States, they’ll take a one week break after that and pick back up again on Saturday, July 13th back in Japan. From there, every show will be on NJPW World live. Come hang on the BoD night thread with us and watch it! It gets craaaazzzy!

7. Really? It gets crazy on the BoD night thread?
Nah, not really. It’s just us wrestling nerds talking about Joshi. Sometimes Phrederic goes a little nuts, but that’s about it.

8. Really?
Nah, that’s a total lie. Everyone’s perfectly nice. Everyone’s welcome, come hang and watch some wrestling with us!

9. Alright, enough of this crap. Who’s in this thing?
Okay, let’s do that part. I’ve divided this into a few sections to kind of let you know a bit about the mix of folks in this thing.

THE “WE’RE REALLY JUST HAPPY TO BE HERE” TIER:

Lance Archer (A Block) – Archer is the former partner of Davey Boy Smith Jr in The Killer Elite Squad. He’s a member of the heel group Suzuki-Gun and just recently went to singles with Davey Boy’s departure from New Japan. He’ll pick up a few wins here and there, but has no realistic shot at winning.

Bad Luck Fale (A Block) – Fale is a founding member of the original Bullet Club and is a huge, 300+ lb big man. He’s appeared in multiple G-1’s and is a perennial midcard talent who occasionally main events. He also has no shot at winning, but will probably win a few here and there.

KENTA (A Block) – the former Hideo Itami, KENTA made his return to Japan and subsequent first appearance in NJPW in a shocking moment at Dominion, the big summer NJPW show. I expect him to make some noise and possibly pull off a shocker here and there, but he’s not a threat to win.

EVIL (A Block) – A founding member of Los Ingobernables de Japon, EVIL has recently been isolating himself from the group, ostensibly to prepare himself for the G-1. It won’t result in a win and could actually lead to his departure from the group if they decide to go that way.

Jeff Cobb (B Block) – one of the foreign entrants this year, Cobb is a former Ring of Honor TV champion and just recently lost a title match for the ROH World title against champion Matt Taven. As this is his first year in the G-1, I don’t expect much. He’s a great wrestler, but this is not his year.

Hirooki Goto (B Block) – a perennial entrant in the G-1, Goto has won the G-1 once before – in 2008, 11 years ago. Ever since then, Goto has remained near the upper midcard, but has not reached the heights that one would need to reach to even be considered a winner for the tournament. He’ll have a respectable performance and that’s about it.

Juice Robinson (B Block) – Juice is the former NJPW US champion and the former CJ Parker of NXT. He’s been in Japan for years now and has slowly moved up the ladder, but his ceiling seems to be about where he is, at least for the time being. He’s a great promo and a decent worker, but it’s not going to be enough to win the G-1.

Taichi (B Block) – Taichi is a member of Suzuki-Gun. I don’t pretend to be objective about him – Taichi sucks. Next.

Toru Yano (B Block) – a comedy wrestler, Yano has been in this tournament for years to do two things – take pinfalls and somehow beat Minoru Suzuki. Now, with Suzuki gone from the event, he doesn’t even have that to look forward to. He’ll pull one or two wins out of his hat, possibly, but that’s all.

THE “THEY WON’T WIN, BUT THEY’LL BE PROTECTED” TIER:

Kazuchika Okada (A Block) – The current IWGP champion, Okada will win several of his matches, but it’s the matches that he loses that will matter; one of the booking tropes of the G-1 is that a champion that gets beat in the G-1 normally ends up then defending their title against the man who beat them. Expect Okada to take 2, potentially 3 losses minimum in this event to set up possible challenges for the months leading up to Wrestle Kingdom.

Zack Sabre, Jr (A Block) – ZSJ would win this tournament in a perfect world. You know, the one where I’m booking New Japan. However, that having been said, ZSJ is very, very protected in Japan and I expect that to continue. He doesn’t lose a lot, and most of his losses in one on one matches come to main eventers like Okada. He is very comfortably in the upper-card of New Japan and is one of the top foreigners in the company. He’ll put up a very respectable point total and will probably be in contention for the Block until the last few shows.

SANADA (A Block) – SANADA is also a member of Los Ingobernables de Japon, and is a former tag partner of EVIL. He has a shot at climbing higher than his current station, but there just seems to be something missing in him that I can’t quite put my finger on. Regardless, he seems to be held in higher esteem than EVIL and therefore I suspect he will have a better tournament.

Hiroshi Tanahashi (A Block) – last year’s winner and multiple-time IWGP champion, Tanahashi would normally be near the top of the list to win this event. He’s had a tough year, in that injuries have wrecked him most of the last several months. I very much enjoyed his run to win the event last year and his subsequent title win at Wrestle Kingdom, but I also think that this is not his year.

Jon Moxley (B Block) – the former Dean Ambrose made a splash by winning the US title from Juice Robinson in his first appearance in NJPW, and subsequently declared his intentions to join in the festivities. Moxley is an interesting case, as he is signed to AEW, albeit with a clause allowing him to work New Japan. But it’s also been rumored that he is full-time with AEW and that would seemingly not allow him to win this, as he’ll be with them when they start TV in October. That having been said, I expect a very respectable performance from Moxley in this event and he is a contender, but not a realistic winner.

Tomohiro Ishii (B Block) – the Stone Pitbull, Ishii eats and shits 4+ star matches for breakfast. Ishii may in fact be the best worker in the world (something I really wouldn’t argue too much), in that he gets fantastic matches out of all of his opponents. He is, to me, the best workhorse in all of New Japan and normally ends up either near the top of the heap in the Climax or at least picks up an upset that gets him a title shot along the way. Ishii is a great ‘not quite’ guy – he can easily be heated up to take on any champion and look perfectly respectable doing so, but he’s not the guy to win the World title, he’s the guy to make the World champ look strong in a hard-fought title match; last year, he beat Kenny Omega in the tournament, then lost to him in their championship match. He’ll probably do something very similar this year, I’d guess.

THE “WEREN’T THESE GUYS JUNIORS LIKE A MONTH AGO?” TIER:

Will Ospreay (A Block) – despite what it may look like, Will doesn’t just feud with Seth Rollins on Twitter. A running debate in the wrestling world is whether or not Ospreay is actually the best wrestler in the world at this time. Probably most famous amongst casual fans as ‘the guy who had THAT match with Ricochet’ from a few years ago, Ospreay won the Best of the Super Juniors tournament this year, using that win to challenge for and subsequently win the IWGP Junior championship. Will decided that this wasn’t quite enough for him and declared his intentions to enter the G-1 and attempt to win both tournaments in 2019, an unprecedented achievement if he pulls it off. I don’t think he has a shot to win the entire thing, but I DO think he has an outside shot at winning the Block. I expect he will be in contention all the way through the final day and he very well could possibly win A Block, although I consider it a real dark horse situation for him to do so.

Shingo Takagi (B Block) – the runner-up to Ospreay in this year’s BOSJ final (in what is a definitive Match of the Year candidate), Takagi was introduced as the newest member of Los Ingobernables de Japon earlier this year. He went undefeated in his Block in the juniors tournament and is a force to be reckoned with. He requested a heavyweight match to prove that he deserved to be in the G-1, won that match against Kojima, and was granted his wish. I expect Takagi to do very well in this tournament, but I don’t expect him to be in contention at the end.

THE “OKAY, THESE GUYS CAN WIN THIS THING” TIER:

Kota Ibushi (A Block) – To me, the clear favorite in A Block is Kota Ibushi. Ibushi is a great wrestler who is well-known for his willingness to take completely insane risks in the ring (or out of the ring with fireworks, just Google it). Ibushi won his Block last year, defeating IWGP champion and tag partner Kenny Omega to do so, but lost the Final to Hiroshi Tanahashi in a great match. The key to Ibushi possibly finally winning this thing is very simple – he signed a contract for the first time with New Japan. Ibushi had normally been nomadic in his wrestling career, not willing to be tied down or sign with anyone, having turned down NJPW and WWE before. Now that they know he’s going to be in NJPW, assuming his neck holds up, they’re more likely to give him that final shove. In the last year, he’s held both the NEVER openweight title and the IWGP Intercontinental title, and I do feel like his time may be here.

Tetsuya Naito (B Block) – the leader of Los Ingobernables de Japon, Naito won the G-1 two years ago, but lost to Okada at Wrestle Kingdom. He is the current IWGP Intercontinental champion – he doesn’t care at all for that belt and has stated his disdain for it in the past, but now he wants to win the IWGP title to be a double belt holder. Naito is arguably the most popular wrestler in all of New Japan, and very realistically could win the B Block. Depending on which pundit you’re talking to, the window on Naito has either already closed, is closing rapidly, or will remain open so long as Naito remains popular. I’m in the third camp, but I also think that they have to pull the trigger on his winning the title relatively soon, and that this year may in fact be the year.

Jay White (B Block) – the current leader of Bullet Club, White is the top foreign heel in the company. NJPW is very high on Jay White, to the point that he defeated Tanahashi to win the IWGP title before losing it to Okada at Madison Square Garden on Wrestlemania weekend. White defeated Okada at last year’s Wrestle Kingdom and has beaten Tanahashi twice in that time span, which is normally a pretty good indicator as to how New Japan looks at you: if you’re going over both of those guys, you’re a top guy. White had a great run in last year’s G-1, and I expect him to have another one this year, and is very possibly the favorite to win the Block. There are folks who don’t particularly love White, but regardless of that fact, they’ve put a lot of chips on him in NJPW and I don’t expect that to change.

10. Those are the guys, then. Who wins?

I see three possible Finals matchups:

IBUSHI/WHITE – I think this is the most likely. In this scenario, I would expect Ibushi to win.
IBUSHI/NAITO – I think this is the 2nd most likely. This is a pick ‘em, but I’d probably bet on Ibushi if I had to pick one.
OSPREAY/NAITO – I think this is the 3rd most likely. In this scenario, I would expect Naito to win.

My reasoning for these finals are this. Ibushi vs White is the most traditional face/heel matchup we could get out of the Blocks as they’re currently configured, and Ibushi overcoming White in the Final would probably be the most ‘feel-good’ win they have. Naito vs Ibushi would be crowning match in what is unquestionably the single most-dangerous feud of the year, with both guys upping their game to the point of potential neck-breaking absurdity. I did not enjoy their last match very much and am hoping that this does not happen, but there is groundwork that has been laid over the last year to make it very much a reality. Ospreay vs Naito is my pick for the shocker, in that pushing Ospreay to the Block win would be ambitious but also completely logical on most every level – but I would not expect him to beat Naito in that case.

Any way you slice it, my pick to win the G-1 this year, assuming no injuries, is Kota Ibushi.

11. What else should I be looking for?

Faction wars! Some of my favorite G-1 matches every year happen when faction members take on each other, and there are a bunch this year.
In Block A, we’ve got:

Lance Archer vs Zack Sabre Jr (Suzuki-Gun)
EVIL vs SANADA (Los Ingobernables de Japon)
Kazuchika Okada vs Will Ospreay (CHAOS)

And in Block B, we’ve got:

Hirooki Goto vs Tomohiro Ishii (CHAOS)
Hirooki Goto vs Toru Yano (CHAOS)
Toru Yano vs Tomohiro Ishii (CHAOS)
Tetsuya Naito vs Shingo Takagi (Los Ingobernables de Japon)

Factions that end up fighting in the G-1 can lead to all sorts of fun after the tournament, with tensions potentially rising due to wins and losses. Great stories can come from that.
Also, always keep an eye out for potential upsets whenever a title holder is in the ring, because frequently challengers for those titles come from G-1 wins and losses. Upsets in the G-1 are rarely ignored and normally played up; the G-1 tends to really set the course for most wrestlers in the company for the next several months.

12. Sounds cool, but a month is a long time to keep up with a wrestling tournament.
That isn’t a question.

13. Don’t be that guy.
Neither is tha- you’re right, no reason to be a jerk. I do want people to like this stuff, after all. Yes, the tournament is long, but there are benefits. You get to see matches that you don’t see most of the year and you get to see them night in and night out.

One of the best pieces of advice that I can give anyone about the G-1, especially first-time viewers, is not to overdo it, because if you’re not deep into it, you will absolutely get overwhelmed. You really don’t need to watch every single show and even if you do, you can skip the tag matches a lot of the time if you wish. The beauty of the tournament is that thanks to NJPW World, you can tailor-make your viewing experience to whatever you prepare.

I’ve known folks in the past who don’t want to worry about ‘keeping up’ with the G-1 every day, and that’s perfectly reasonable. There will be plenty of coverage all over the ‘net; if some fantastic match happens, it’ll be there to watch and you’ll know about it. Drop in for awhile, drop out for awhile, it doesn’t matter.

The G-1 is cool. Come along for the ride however you want, it’s all good.

14. Okay, fine. One last question, then – why isn’t Minoru Suzuki in the G-1 this year?
I dunno. But I have no plans to ask him, as I would prefer to continue breathing.

That’s it, I’m done! The G-1 starts tonight, hope I see all of you on the BoD.

Drop me a comment below with who YOU think is gonna win the G-1. Tell me I’m right! Or, more importantly, tell me I’m wrong!

And, as always, thanks for reading this thing I wrote,

Rick Poehling
@MrSoze on Twitter