Best of the Super Juniors 2018 – The Mathening!

Howdy!

The 2018 Best of the Super Juniors tournament has been ongoing for the past few weeks, and there’s one night to go before the Final. I thought I would take a moment for those that are interested to break down who still has a shot to win before tonight’s event, in the hopes that all of you that forgot to cancel your NJPW World subs after Jericho/Omega decide to tune in tonight!

Let’s begin!

I’m assuming you have some familiarity with the BOSJ or you wouldn’t have clicked on this, but the basics of the event are that it’s a multi-week round robin tournament, separated into 2 Blocks, with the winner of each Block meeting in the Finals to determine the challenger for the IWGP Jr Heavyweight Champion (currently Will Ospreay) at Dominion, NJPW’s biggest show of the summer. Should the champion win, he will name his challenger for that show.

A BLOCK CURRENT POINT TOTALS: (2 pts for a win, 1 pt for a draw, 0 pts for a loss)

Taiji Ishimori – 8 pts
Will Ospreay – 8 pts
Yoh – 6 pts
BUSHI – 6 pts
Flip Gordon – 6 pts
Tiger Mask IV – 6 pts
Yoshinobu Kanemaru – 4 pts
ACH – 4 pts

WHO’S STILL GOT A SHOT? – Ospreay and Ishimori, if we’re being realistic. Ishimori faces Yoh on the final day, while Ospreay squares off against Flip Gordon. For Ishimori, it’s simple – win and he’s in. He wins the head-to-head tiebreaker after having defeated Will on the first day of Block competition. He can also win the Block with a draw and a loss from Will.

For Will, he must win his match to win the Block, along with an Ishimori loss. He can’t beat Taiji Ishimori in the tiebreak, so he has to win and get help. He also wins the Block with a draw and an Ishimori loss.

But what if…..Ishimori loses to Yoh, leaving both of them at 8 points, Ospreay loses to Flip and leaves both of them at 8 points, and BUSHI beats Kanemaru to get to 8 points? Then we’ve got a 5-way tie at the top of the leaderboard and the tiebreaks are a mess. Well, in that case, there’s only one man possesses the mathematical pedigree to solve the morass…..

But, assuming that is unnecessary, it really does just come down to Ospreay and Taiji.

THE CASE FOR ISHIMORI: The new Bullet Club Bone Soldier came to NJPW at Wrestling Dontaku, attacking Ospreay after his title defense against KUSHIDA and pretty much declaring his intentions to take the title from Will. He followed that up by beating Will in the first round of the BOSJ to cement his chase of the belt. Bringing him into the company with a win in the biggest Jr tournament of the year would clearly be a sign that he’s going far, especially after putting him over the champ in the first round.

THE CASE AGAINST ISHIMORI: He might not need to win. Him going over Ospreay in the first round of the tournament gives him the claim to a title shot, so why does he need to win the whole thing? His victory against Will might be enough, and those one-off victories in tournaments have been a favorite booking tactic of Gedo to create challengers.

THE CASE FOR OSPREAY: The case for Will comes down to two words: Rey. Mysterio. Mysterio is currently scheduled to wrestle at Dominion…..with no opponent named. Ospreay has already stated that, should he win the BOSJ, he will indeed be that opponent and wrestle Mysterio for the title. That potential match may be worth having Will take this thing down. The champ has won this tournament as recently as 2013 (Prince Devitt), so it’s not completely out of left field.

THE CASE AGAINST OSPREAY: Why? He already has the title, and he can wait to wrestle Mysterio in the US at the Cow Palace. I don’t really think that Will needs to win this for any truly compelling reason.

MY THOUGHTS: Ishimori. I wouldn’t at all be shocked to see Will pull it off, but I just don’t see the reasoning for it – Ishimori came in strong, already beat Will, and should probably be kept strong by at least winning the Block. That way, even if he doesn’t win the tournament, he still has a win against Ospreay and a Block win to have a pedigree to challenge for the belt.

B BLOCK CURRENT POINT TOTALS:

Hiromu Takahashi – 8 pts
KUSHIDA – 8 pts
Marty Scurll – 8 pts
Chris Sabin – 6 pts
Dragon Lee – 6 pts
El Desperado – 4 pts
Ryusuke Taguchi – 4 pts
Sho – 4 pts

WHO’S STILL GOT A SHOT? – Takahashi & KUSHIDA, with Scurll dangling right on the edge. KUSHIDA and Hiromu face off on the final night of Block competition, and the winner of that match will go to the Finals. If they draw, Scurll will go to the final with a win. If KUSHIDA, Takahashi, & Scurll all draw……well, that isn’t happening, so I’m not going to worry about it. Let’s just focus on KUSHIDA and Takahashi, as I think that the idea of Scurll winning is pretty remote.

THE CASE FOR TAKAHASHI: I picked him to win before the tournament started. He’s had a rough 2018 storyline wise, having had several setbacks since dropping the title to KUSHIDA in 2017 and failing to subsequently win it back. This could be the first stop on the road back for him, and he’s the most over Jr there is.

THE CASE AGAINST TAKAHASHI: He’s already crazy over, plus he’s had shots at Ospreay and lost; is there a clamoring for another Hiromu/Will match? Well, besides in my living room, that is.

THE CASE FOR KUSHIDA: He’s figgin’ KUSHIDA. He’s one of the top 10 wrestlers in the world, probably top 5 for me. He’s won this event 2 out of the last 3 years, and with him chasing down the shadow of Liger’s accolades with respect to the junior division, a win wouldn’t be completely out of the question, even though I think there’s a decent chance he moves to heavyweight at some point in the future. He’d give Ishimori even more credibility if he put him over in the Final.

THE CASE AGAINST KUSHIDA: He just had a great match against Will in a losing effort, and I don’t see him getting another shot this soon. He won the tournament last year, and probably isn’t going back-to-back, so why bother putting him in the Final when Hiromu probably could use it more?

MY THOUGHTS: I picked Hiromu before the tournament started and haven’t changed my mind. Takahashi is the guy and should be at the top of the division.

Favorite match of the tournament so far has been Sho/Dragon Lee, who pulled out all the stops and had a great 20 minute tilt. You should all check that one out.

The Block finals take place late tonight live with English commentary on NJPW World, 4:30 AM eastern. If you’re up, find me here or on Twitter!

As always, thanks for reading this thing I wrote,

Rick Poehling
@MrSoze on Twitter