NFL Week 2 Odds and Picks

For those of you that like a little more interest to your football watching than fandom or fantasy, here are the current lines for week 2 in the NFL, followed by some tips and picks:

New England -1.5 at Buffalo +1.5 O/U 4.5
Arizona -2.5 at Chicago +2.5 O/U 45.5
Houston +3 at Carolina -3 O/U 39.5
Tampa +10 at New Orleans -10 O/U 47.5
San Francisco +6 at Pittsburgh -6 O/U 45.5
Detroit +3 at Minnesota -3 O/U 43.5
Tennessee -1.5 at Cleveland +1.5 O/U 41.5
San Diego +3 at Cincinnati +3 O/U 47

Atlanta +3 at NY Giants -3 O/U 51.5
Baltimore -6.5 at Oakland +6.5 O/U 43.5
Miami -6.5 at Jacksonville +6.5 O/U 41.5
Dallas +5.5 at Philly -5.5 O/U 55.5
Seattle +3.5 at Green Bay -3.5 O/U 49.0
NY Jets +7 at Indy -7 O/U 46.5

For anyone new to the world of football wagering, here are a few simple tips that may help you to avoid losing everything and keep it simple so as to have fun throughout the season. I wager more for fun than anything else, as it gives me more interest in some games and teams that I normally would have no interest in. Even though it’s for fun, I’ve still managed to come out ahead most seasons.

There is no such thing as a “lock”

If you go searching online for football betting advice, you’ll no doubt see many “experts” claiming to have the lock of the week, or lock of the season, or however else they word it. Don’t fall for the hype. There is no such thing as a lock. If so, there would be no need to even play the game. Just don’t get too wrapped up in the “guaranteed” picks offered out there.

Keep your wagers on the smaller side

One simple rule of thumb for making your money last throughout the season is set your own personal limit to 1% to 5% of your bankroll for each wager. If your bankroll is $500, then your bet should be $5 per game in most cases. For games that you feel really good about, then maybe make that individual wager up to the 3% or 5% range. If you look at picks online, mine included, you’ll notice that most folks don’t mention a dollar amount wagered, they simply mention the number of units wagered. This is what they are talking about. a wager of 3 units = 3% of the total money they are working with. This system allows you to not lose everything in one bad week of wagering, and insures you still have the funds to continue playing for the weeks following.

Don’t chase after losing wagers

One of the worst things you can do is go chasing after a string of losses. Let’s say its Sunday afternoon around 3:30. You made 3 wagers on the early games and lost all of them. A lot of folks think they can get it all back by making some wagers for the late games, and increase those bets to not only get back what they have already lost for the day, but still turn a profit. More times than not, they end up just losing even more. If you have a bad day, don’t chase. Just regroup and try again the next week.

Parlays are tough

Many may be enticed by the increased payouts that parlay bets offer, but ignore the increased difficulty in actually winning those wagers. In a parlay, you combine multiple games to a single wager, and it drastically increases your payout. The hard part is, every single team on your parlay must cover for you to win. Making 5 picks and actually hitting all five has proven to be rare. You’re better off just betting games individually.

Teasers are a good way to get the numbers in your favor

In a teaser play, you have to select multiple teams like a parlay, but in a teaser, you actually get to move the lines of each game in your favor. Let’s look at an example from this weeks games. I like the following three teams on a teaser…New England -1.5, Arizona -2.5, and Tampa +10. I’ll be playing this as a 7 point teaser, and moving the lines in my favor for a final result of New England +5.5, Arizona +4.5, and Tampa at +17. This means that New England and Arizona are no longer the favorites giving up points, but are now underdogs GETTING points, and I get even more points with Tampa. So New England can actually lose the game, but as long as they don’t lose by more than 6 points, I win. All three games have to cover for the teaser to pay off, but I have more luck with teasers than I do with anything else season after season.

Single game bets at -110 are your best bet

The way sports books make money is through the “juice” on wagers. That is what the -110 signifies. To place a bet on New England at -1.5, you have to wager $11 to win $10. That dollar is the “juice”. Sports books ideal situation is for as much money to come in on the favorite as it does the underdog, so the losings go to pay off the winnings, with the house keeping that $1 juice on every bet on the losers making up their profit. If you’re just starting out, I recommend just betting on single games instead of the more exotic parlays, teasers, reverses and any other complicated offerings you find.

Over/Unders

The O/U line listed in the above games signifies the total combined score for that game. You can wager if you think the total points will be over or under than amount. Over/Under bets can also be added to parlays and teasers instead of game winners. Most find it difficult to hit over/unders with any regularity, but I look for extreme totals. It’s rare for an NFL game to end under 40 points, and likewise, it’s not often that a game gets above 55 points. I look for Over/Under totals outside of that range to find value bets. Like this week’s game between Hou and Car. It’s listed as 39.5. I like the over in that one, so I may add it to a teaser, moving it 7 points in my favor making it 32.5 and then taking the OVER.

Betting the money line

If you bet the “money line”, it means you are taking the odds out of the bet. There is no favorite or underdog, and you are simply betting on which team you think will win the game straight up. But betting money line favorites requires more “juice”. Here is the money line for the Tampa Bay vs. New Orleans game: Tampa +380, New Orleans -480. What that means is, with a $10 bet on Tampa to win the game, you would wager $10 to win $38. On the flip side, if you pick the heavily favored Saints to win, you would have to wager $48 to win just $10. I don’t do money line wagers very often, but sometimes you’ll see an underdog that you think will win the game, and find it interesting enough to bet them on the money line for a larger payout than normal.

Underdogs at home

And the last tip for today, you’ll often find that betting on an underdog at home covers. You won’t see many of these odds every week, but they do occur sometimes. Like this week, there are two home underdogs. Oakland getting 6.5 points, and Cleveland getting 1.5 points. Home underdogs have around a .600 average of covering, giving you slightly better odds than other wagers historically.

My Picks For This Week:

As a disclaimer, I don’t guarantee that any of these picks will win, but these are the wagers I have made for this week:

3 Team, 7 Point Teaser – 5 units
New England moved up to +5.5
Arizona moved up to +4.5
Tampa moved up to +17

3 Team, 7 point O/U Teaser – 3 units
Hou vs Car moved down to 32.5 taking the OVER
Ten vs Cle moved down to 34.5 taking the OVER
Dal vs Phi moved up to 62.5 taking the UNDER

New England -1.5 – 1 unit
Arizona -2.5 – 1 unit

See you again next week for Week 3 Power Rankings, Odds and Picks. If you have any questions on wagering, put them in the comments and I’ll try to answer them. And if you want to experience the fun of football wagering without the risk of losing money, check out wannamakeabet.com where you just wager virtual currency on games in competition with other live players to see who does the best. It’s pretty simple to use. See you next week.